In much of the news this morning, we’re hearing the Russian advance in northern Ukraine has ALREADY stalled, with troops around Kyiv taking up defensive positions in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks, BOTH there and near Sumy, where Russia has been having trouble encircling the main Ukrainian army.
As regards the ongoing peace talks, numerous international analysts are cautioning that the progress made yesterday does NOT mean that Russia is ready for serious discussions on ending the war.
That would require a better outcome of future military actions on the battlefield Putin to sell at home as a victory…and that’s the real ‘danger zone’ within this horrific conflict.
Most long-time diplomats that I’ve been reading, and listening to, say/feel any agreement would, at minimum, have to give Russia control of Mariupol, the besieged port city in Ukraine that is still somehow holding out, to create a secure land route between two areas that Russia occupies: Crimea to the west, and the Donbas to the east.
And it would also, they say, have to cede control over the two administrative regions in the Donbas, Luhansk and Donetsk, which Vlad has ALREADY declared to be “independent republics.”
Late yesterday, the Ukrainians outlined a 15-year process of negotiations about the status of Crimea, and said that control of the Donbas Region could be discussed in meetings between Putin and Zelensky; Russia has said it would only agree to a meeting between the two presidents once a draft peace agreement was ready.
Truth has been impossible to discern, in any instance, since Putin started this war, why would any of us believe him at the moment?
Russia will look to move their troops from where they are losing to where they are winning…this has NOTHING to do with peace, just a tactical change as they realize they can’t take specific areas/regions.
BOOTS ON THE GROUND: where are they; what are they doing??!
Lobster on the Prairie 